Online news about an earthquake that might hit Uzbekistan between April 11-13, which was forecasted to be of a magnitude higher than 8, went quickly through the www.
Ulfat Nurmatov, a scientist of the Institute of Seismology, said in an interview with the kun.uz that strong earthquakes were not expected in Central Asia shortly.
In April, one of the seismic zones of the earth was predicted to have a strong earthquake of magnitude higher than 8. The Solar System Geometry Survey Institute announced this. Dutch seismologist Frank Hugerbitz and his team analyzed the changes connected with atmospheric fluctuations and estimated the date and area of the earthquake.
Scientists have compiled a list of 50 areas where earthquakes are likely to occur. Uzbekistan and neighbouring countries were not included. Nurmatov said that the scientists of the Institute regularly analyzed seismic activity globally at the monitoring board.
"We study where and how active the earthquake happens. A similar council meeting was held last week, and strong earthquakes will not be expected in Central Asia and Uzbekistan shortly. Now the regions of Central Asia are in a state of moderate activity," the expert said.
Nurmatov also expressed his opinion about the estimate of Frank Hugerbits.
"Seismologists can usually predict where the next major earthquake may occur, but not the exact date, from their observations. Sometimes the dates are correct, sometimes they are not. This is just a pure guess," the Uzbek seismologist continued.
Frank Hoogerbitz is a well-known earthquake forecaster and researcher at the Institute for Geometry Studies of the Solar System (SSGEOS). He was born on October 26, 1968, in Haarlem, in the western part of the Netherlands. Hugerbitz is best known for his theories about seismic activity and the alignment of celestial bodies, particularly the relationship between the Sun and the Moon and the planets. Hugerbitz's theories and predictions about earthquakes and volcanic eruptions were not supported by official science. Most seismologists and geologists do not believe his statements. Nevertheless, Hugerbitz's predictions are of great interest due to the lack of reliable earthquake prediction methods.
In 2023, on February 3, the scientist predicted on his Twitter page that a 7.5-magnitude earthquake would occur in Turkey.
-The modern lithosphere consists of eight large and many small plates. The contact points of large plates form seismically active belts, within which most of the strong earthquakes occur. Interestingly, more than 80% of the strongest earthquakes on the planet occur in one of these belts, the Pacific Seismic Belt. Uzbekistan is located on the Eurasian plate, which interacts with the Indian and Arabian plates.
Dozens of earthquakes occur every day in Uzbekistan, but people do not feel them - only special equipment registers earthquakes. However, on average, strong earthquakes that can cause tremors of 5-6 intensity points occur in the country once a year, says Roman Ibragimov.
Kaharbai Abdullabekov, head of the Geophysical Field Change Laboratory of the Institute of Seismology, believes that seismic activity is recorded by seismic stations. About 50 of them are installed in Uzbekistan, and they are part of the global network of seismic stations. This allows the country's experts to receive real-time information about all earthquakes in the world. The strength of the earthquake depends not only on the size and depth of the epicenter, but also the type and condition of the soil, the geological characteristics of the area, also affect the intensity, Abdullabekov noted.
According to Roman Ibragimov, for each earthquake of a certain magnitude, there will be a number of stronger earthquakes identified. This relationship in seismology is described by the Guttenberg-Richter law.
Experts of the institute are trying to predict the current seismological situation by comparing it with the situation before the earthquakes that have already occurred.
Experts distinguish three types of forecast: long-term (for decades), medium-term (from a few months to two-three years) and short-term (from a few hours to a month).
Long-term forecasts are made on the basis of information about the seismic mode and deformation of the earth's surface, which is determined by GPS and geodetic data. Medium- and short-term forecasts analyze the Earth's magnetic field and the gas-chemical composition of groundwater. However, today there are no 100 percent forecasting methods in the world, experts say.
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